A median age at death of 67.7—is that really so alarming?

Everyone, there’s been a rumor circulating online recently claiming that the median age of death for Chinese men is only 67.7 years—and that half of Chinese men don’t live past that age. At first glance, that’s truly startling. It makes me wonder: how much longer do I have to live? However, we need to take a rational look at this and ask: Is this data actually reliable? First of all, the figure of 67.7 years simply doesn’t hold water. The article circulating online claims that the United Nations’ *World Population Prospects 2024* reports China’s median age at death for men in 2023 as 73 years, and it also states that this aligns with data from the National Bureau of Statistics. But I pored over that table for a long time and couldn’t find a column labeled “median age at death”; I asked all sorts of AI models and crunched the numbers on my calculator, but I still couldn’t arrive at the figure of 73. We need to understand that the median age at death is not the same thing as average life expectancy. The median age at death reflects the age distribution of people who have already passed away; it has nothing to do with the average lifespan of those currently alive. It is merely a retrospective statistic and is heavily influenced by the age structure of the population. In a society with a severely aging population, the average age of those who die is naturally higher, but this does not mean that the life expectancy of people living today is shorter. Now let’s talk about life expectancy at birth. This is a more reliable indicator. It predicts how many years a newborn is expected to live, assuming current age-specific mortality rates remain unchanged. According to 2023 data from the United Nations, China’s per capita life expectancy at birth is 78.0 years—75.2 years for men and 80.9 years for women. The National Health Commission’s statistics, however, put it at 78.6 years; we’ll use the Commission’s figures as our reference. The projection for 2025 is 79.25 years. What about the data for the United States? In 2023, life expectancy at birth in the U.S. was 79.3 years—76.9 years for men and 81.8 years for women. The U.S. figures are slightly higher than China’s. Now let’s look at mortality rates before age 60. In 2023, China’s mortality rate before age 60 was 117 per thousand for men and 64 per thousand for women, for an overall rate of 91 per thousand. In the United States, the rates were 142 per thousand for men and 84 per thousand for women, for an overall rate of 114 per thousand. It is clear that China’s mortality rate before age 60 is indeed lower than that of the United States. If you want to know how many good years you have left, you can consult a United Nations report. For example, when I was born in 1985, life expectancy was 64.2 years; by the time I turned 15, my remaining life expectancy was 58.2 years, for a total of 73.2 years. Another example: when my father was born in 1957, his life expectancy was 46.6 years; by the time he turned 15—in 1972—his remaining life expectancy was 49.8 years, which was higher than his total life expectancy at birth. By the time he turned 65—in 2022—his remaining life expectancy was 15.8 years, bringing the total to 80.8 years—even higher than the life expectancy of a newborn, which is 78.2 years. What do these figures tell us? They show that advances in economic conditions, nutrition, medical care, and health awareness have enabled us to live longer. Therefore, figures like “67.7 years” are pure alarmism and completely unreliable. Let’s take another look at those self-media articles and videos. They often highlight that the average life expectancy for Chinese men is significantly shorter than that for women, creating gender-based divisions. They also frequently add the claim that the average life expectancy for those in the “system” is over 90 years. What’s really going on here? These exaggerated figures likely stem from AI hallucinations. AI is not a reservoir of objective truth, but rather a repository of public information. If this repository is contaminated, the more viral a rumor becomes, the higher its weighting—creating a self-perpetuating cycle. AI may adjust its predictions, but if it favors authoritative media sources, it will still accept them as fact. Therefore, we must approach this information rationally. Aside from AI, we have no better tools for acquiring knowledge. So, we have no choice but to choose whom to trust. But are these “authorities” truly worthy of our trust? Between AI and humans, who holds greater authority?