With 1 million people watching, let’s talk about the battle for mineral resources

Over the past couple of days, more than a million people have been following my posts about oil, and some have accused me of leaking classified information. Let me be clear: everything I’ve shared is publicly available information—even the U.S. think tank AIDDATA tracks it daily. Today, let’s set aside the issue of leaks and talk about our ambitions in the minerals sector. Between 2000 and 2023, we invested $98 billion in 47 countries to develop 31 types of critical minerals. Some people only know that we hold a dominant position in rare earths, but that’s just the beginning. Rare earths are like the canary in the coal mine—they signal our ability to control the global supply chain. The U.S. Geological Survey has identified 60 critical minerals for the United States—without them, America’s technological progress would grind to a halt. In these minerals, we account for 60% of mining, 90% of processing, and 75% of manufacturing. This has the U.S. in a panic, prompting them to step up their competitive efforts. According to AIDDATA statistics, China accounts for 92% of financing for upstream mining and only 8% for midstream processing—clearly aimed at securing supply. Investing in overseas mines involves high barriers to entry, so we help investors overcome these hurdles through loan programs. Once they’ve gained a foothold, we provide long-term financing solutions. Subsidized loans further boost mine development and expansion. Our investments in mines are now spread across the globe: 20% are in low-income countries, 56% in middle-income countries, and 24% in high-income countries. We’ve even set our sights on mineral resources in developed nations like Australia and Canada. The United States is not to be outdone; the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) recently submitted a list of state-owned mineral assets to Trump. We have numerous copper and cobalt mines in the DRC, and AIDDATA has conducted detailed analyses of them, covering financing methods, ownership structures, operational status, ESG challenges, risk management, and other specifics. Taking advantage of Trump’s mediation in the conflict with Rwanda, the DRC aims to use its mineral resources as a strategic bargaining chip in the competition between China and the U.S. It’s not just the DRC—the entire African continent is rich in mineral resources, accounting for 30% of the world’s total. Both the U.S. and China are clearly eyeing Africa’s mineral resources. However, Africa’s processing capacity is weak, and its economies rely heavily on raw material exports, leaving them with only a 10% share of the value chain. Private enterprises from the U.S. and other Western countries have a long history of mining in Africa and hold a large number of mining assets, which forms the foundation of Africa’s resource extraction landscape. However, the U.S. government has historically had minimal involvement; it was not until Biden promoted the Lobito Corridor project that it systematically increased its engagement. Trump now places great emphasis on the security of mineral supplies, implying that regardless of how much profit Africa can make, his sole concern is ensuring the United States secures access to the minerals. African nations also seek to use their mineral resources to secure tariff reductions as leverage in trade negotiations. We have been cooperating with Africa on mining for nearly 20 years, often adopting a “resources-for-infrastructure” model—exchanging mining rights for road construction, hospital building, and power plant development. The 2024 Forum on China-Africa Cooperation further emphasized industrial cooperation—not just extraction, but also bringing downstream industries and establishing processing plants in host countries. Currently, most of the processing capacity for these strategically important mines is in Chinese hands, particularly for high-value segments. Outsourcing some of this to African partners aligns with their own development interests. Africa has also put forward its long-term development blueprint, Agenda 2063, whose vision for the mining sector integrates the industry into plans for industrialization and green development. Africa now recognizes that it is the focus of competition between China and the U.S. and has a clearer understanding of sustainable infrastructure development and self-determination. It needs to discern whether the competition between China and the U.S. aligns with its own vision and how to leverage its own influence. The DRC’s submission of a list of mining assets is intended to demonstrate its strategic leverage. What we must do is put forward a value proposition that differs from that of the United States and create greater value for local development.